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American stock index futures maintained a downward trend, with S&P 500 E-MINI futures down 0.3%, Nasdaq futures down 0.6% and Dow Jones futures down 0.1%.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The European Central Bank did not discuss neutral interest rates this week. Many things will become clear in the next few months, not in the next few weeks.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The government should focus on reforms that promote growth.

Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Regardless of the market pricing of interest rate hikes, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the European Central Bank will adjust its policies according to the data and will decide the policies of each meeting one by one. The neutral interest rate cannot be accurately determined without considering the market pricing of interest rate hikes.

Central Economic Work Conference: In view of the bottleneck of industrial transformation and upgrading, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed that we should unswervingly deepen reform and open wider to the outside world in view of the deep-seated obstacles and external challenges that restrict development; In view of the bottleneck restriction of industrial transformation and upgrading, promote the smooth continuous transformation of old and new kinetic energy; Strengthen policy support and optimize supervision services in response to concerns and demands in business operations; In view of the hidden risks in key areas, we will continue to vigorously promote risk disposal. We must vigorously improve the efficiency of implementation, fully mobilize the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of grassroots units, continuously optimize the business environment, and better unite the joint efforts to promote high-quality development. (Xinhua News Agency)Central Economic Work Conference: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, reduce the RRR and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the growth of money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and overall price level. Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Explore and expand the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank, innovate financial instruments, and maintain the stability of the financial market.Central Economic Work Conference: Give play to the traction role of economic system reform and promote the landmark reform measures to be effective. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. The meeting proposed to complete the deepening and upgrading of state-owned enterprise reform with high quality and introduce the private economy promotion law. Carry out special actions to standardize law enforcement involving enterprises. Formulate guidelines for the construction of a unified national market. Strengthen supervision and promote the healthy development of platform economy. Make overall plans to promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and increase local independent financial resources. Deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, open up the blocking points of medium and long-term funds entering the market, and enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system. (Xinhua News Agency)